Escape

I said in a post I wouldn't write many more posts about grief, but I must have lied. Or maybe I anticipated. There's that. 

Crawling out of a grave sounds like a good thing. Overall, I think it is. But you don't know what you're crawling toward. And that darkness — it follows you.

Something happens when you try and get out of a grave. It's the stuff of horror movies, actually. Things have wrapped around you, grown over you, tangled in your hair and limbs. 

It's a terrifying endeavor. 

You can get out, but the struggle reaches a point you question whether you actually want to get out, or whether it's safer and warmer, and easier just to give up. But it's so horribly dark. 

Last night I shared with a friend a scripture that I carried with me for years after Jerry died. It was the only thing that seemed to anchor me. On my worst days I'd find that scripture and read it over and over. Lamentations 3:21-24. You'll probably be familiar with it. Hopeful, if not helpful. It is a verse of comfort in a dark place. 

Later, when I was going to bed, I remembered something. I used to read the whole chapter. I had a vague idea of the contents. Jeremiah is in a dungeon. Last night I tried to read it again. 

It is not a chapter to read in dark places. It is a chapter to tell you someone else has been in that place. That someone else probably understands. Once you read it, when you read it, and you will, you may relive the darkest moments in your life. But for a minute you won't be alone there.  

I cried all the way through that chapter last night. And many nights before. I think that will happen every time I read it in the future. Because once you've been in dark places, it follows you. You'll always wear the marks of the battle to crawl out and it will always follow you. 

That's when you read Lamentations 3. 

In the last few weeks, I attempted to step out of the dark. The light was blinding. And the pain of crawling out is excruciating. There is a point where I had to decide to leave parts of myself there, in that box. My God, it hurts. Never would I have imagined how painful it is to leave a grave, not once but twice. 

The first thing you notice is you can't breathe. You're chest is tight. You're throat closes, and your nose gets stopped up. Then things start to hurt. First it's just that tight chest but then you have pain across your back and neck. Vision is a challenge. You head hurts. 

It's a kind of dying.

It is the Lord's mercies ... it doesn't feel merciful. It is painful. But you keep crawling. 

We are not consumed. But it feels as if you are. The box has devoured you. It isn't locked but it saps all your strength. It is easier to just rest. 

But it isn't rest. It's death.

I'm not writing this to make you feel better or to make me feel better. I'm writing it to tell you that staying there is death. Crawling out feels like death. They're not the same. 

I went to bed in tears. Again. 

Don't assume there is anything to crawl toward. I woke up this morning to a kind of goodbye text. I cried again. 

It's sun up. I can't see. But I know it's up there. 

I'll just hope in Him.

Light

 Tuesday arrived quickly. December 2nd. I can't believe we're here. 

Today is another good day. I can't tell you why. It has just been one of those days that roll in and surprise you with things you didn't think you deserved. 

We had a bit of snow overnight. I went to lunch at Firehouse, my new favorite place. One sandwich and I'm done for the day. And it is so good. The girls behind the counter have become pals. It's nice to go to a place and have a person smile at you and you know they're glad to see you. They told me I was their favorite customer, recently. They're my favorite sandwich girls.

A friend called me and talked for a while, and that was a lovely respite from what would have been a boring day.

No writing today, well — that's not actually true. I wrote something on the writing blog and this, of course. You'll have to go see it if you're interested. 

I blog little about grief here anymore, except at this time of year. I think I posted something recently. I will not do that this year. At least, I'm going to try not to do that. I have several years of grief post from January 30th, 2009, through maybe the next six years. There are random posts throughout the blog for more years. 

This year, I want to end it. I want it to stop. I had a difficult week in mid-November. It was as if it had happened yesterday and I couldn't cope with it. I literally fell apart several times. 

 In the last couple of weeks, I realized I want that to end. I want to stop feeling the hurt. I want to stop hearing that ring rake along the headboard. I don't want to see his eyes anymore. I don't want to experience a silence so great that it feels like I'm dead. 

At some point during this last month, I figured out I want life. And I've not been living life for 17 years. I stopped laughing. I stopped singing. I stopped seeing the world around me. In November, the walls closed in, and I was suffocating. It made me lose myself again in the dark.

Then, someone made me laugh, genuine laughter. And a light came on.  

A Good Day

  Today has been a good day. I post this here to mark it down. I never know, nor do you, whether a day will be a good day. At least not in the sense of nothing going wrong. 

Since Jerry died, any day above ground was "good". But let's face it, if you read any of these blogs, you'll find that no day is that good. And grief often turns days into nightmares . 

But today was a day the Lord made indeed. I woke rested, with no pain, and fairly energetic. I dressed and put my hair up and had half-hour to spare. So good indeed.

I have not been doing much at home but writing. Hours a day but I have lost 12 lbs because I forget to eat. Trying to remember to drink water. Food has become less appealing. This is just bizarre to me. It would appear that writing is an appetite suppressant.

 I should have known this. One thing that I did before Jerry died was write, a lot. Afterward, I wrote a lot just to keep my mind off death. But RA and fibro got worse from the trauma and I couldn't write.  The writing came back in a dump truck. The story was pouring into me at a rate I couldn't believe. Thrity thousand words in a week. 

It feels good, and today was a day of clarity. I felt like my brain woke up overnight. Still don't know what I'm doing, but I'll just ride this road for as long as I can.

Happy Endings

Another holiday finished for a year. What a month it was, too. If you've read this blog long, you know that November through February is a difficult time. In the last few years, it hasn't been terrible, but this year, that mess just blew up in my face.

Starting November 12th, 2025, I began working on a new novel. That wasn't the plan. I have a story I've been working on for a long time and suddenly wanted to write the backstory of those characters to see if it would help me. What happened is confusing and surprising to me.  

As of today, I'm at 35,991 words. That's 2249 words a day, and there were a couple of days I didn't write at all. For non-writers, that's a lot of words.

What was confusing was the emotional turmoil I experienced for the first five days. I cried every day. Every time I wrote and after stopping for any reason. I was just wrecked. It took five days to figure out why. 

My husband died 17 yrs ago this coming January 29th. It was the greatest trauma I've ever experienced. While writing the new story, around the third day, I realized that many of the character traits of the main character reminded me of my husband when we first married. The way he treated the female love interest, the attitudes, and his actions were all my husband. Even the initial meeting of the characters was a reflection of meeting my husband. With that realization, any control I had disappeared. And from that point on, there were moments I had to stop writing at all. I even fell apart in front of my son. 

I don't actually know what would have happened if I had continued without talking to a friend. They gave me the freedom to talk and to let me cry. I felt like a fool and was embarrassed, but it gave me a way to find some control, albeit shaky at best. 

Now, sixteen days in, the story is still flowing like water. I don't know whether anyone will ever read it. I don't care. Though the experience was and is traumatic, the beautiful memory of being loved and cherished is mine to keep. Jerry was the only person who ever wanted me. Maybe we find that only once. I would not like to believe that, but I do. I don't know what he saw in me. I doubt there are many men who can see at that deep. 

I still have to get through finishing this story. Then I have to do an edit or two. Every time I go back to check something or read a passage, it breaks me again. How do you survive that?

I don't care. Just this once, I'll finish the story. There will be a happy ending. Something I never got. And maybe that's why this story came to me. Everyone deserves that much.

Falling into Cactus

 What does it mean when everything you touch becomes painful? Like falling into a cactus. And each spine you pull out, hurts again. By the time you're done, you're a holey, bleeding mess. And everything is gushing out through all those holes.

I'm bleeding out. 

I started the Rendered Praise blog because I wanted to be more positive, to focus on something other than the dark I was living in. Or at the least, find light in the dark. I've begun to think I'm the dark because no amount of light I shine on it matters. Dark is dark, and it can't comprehend light. 

I'm a researcher. I've always known where to find the answers. People ask me about something, I find the answer and tell them. But I can't find the answers to my own questions. I know where to look. I know what I'm asking. 

Maybe I'm asking the wrong questions; maybe I'm looking in the wrong places; maybe my questions just aren't important.

I'm a little old to be asking about the meaning of life. I thought I had figured that out. The whole duty of man is — 

Fear God, and keep his commandments: for this is the whole duty of man. Ecclesiastes 12:13.

 He hath shewed thee, O man, what is good; and what doth the LORD require of thee, but to do justly, and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with thy God? Micah 6:8.

Not hard at all. Right? I thought I was doing all of that well. At least, to the best of my ability. Now, I admit, I don't know. And this time, I don't know where to find the answer. 

I had three different sources tell me this last week I "live in my head too much". I don't know how to live anywhere else. When your world shrinks, where do you go? And what does it even mean? I researched it. It depends. And that is no answer at all.

If I find something to stop the bleeding, maybe I'll find it. 

Right now, tonight, I'm tired of searching. I don't think there are answers.

Stumbling Along

 Life throws things at you randomly to keep you on your toes. I started back working on my book, The Dream Stealer, on November 12th. It may get a new title. For the next nine days, I wrote day and night. By the ninth day, I had around 30K words. My mind was blown. I wasn't sleeping; I lost 10 lbs because I wasn't eating. I could be slimmer if I wrote day and night. I forgot to eat. 

On the second day, I cried and cried nearly every day I wrote. You write what you know and what was going into the story; I knew. And it was painful, beautiful and painful. I went into an immediate depression. I denied it, of course. I couldn't explain what was happening in my head. Until about the 4h or 5th day. 

That's when I realized that the way my character thought and behaved was very familiar to me. I had experienced them in another life. 

Who knew that could happen?

The ages of my characters were very close to ours when I married my husband. The relationship between them was so reminiscent of my marriage in those days, I couldn't stand it. A word, a look — all were like knives. I stopped watching a clock and just wrote. Hours at a time. And I cried between chapters and during breaks. 

You may ask why I didn't stop. Because I couldn't sleep. The story was like a dam break. It kept pouring in and there was no outlet unless I wrote it. So.... I'm close to 35K now. With each scene, I also get a little more insight as to why I have been so impacted.

If you could relive a moment with someone you love, even on paper, what would you do? The thing had a hold on me, and it felt as if I wrote it. Or it was meant to kill me. 

I didn't die, but I can't say I came out of the flow unscathed. I won't know until I finish it. 

I'm still working on it. Over the last four days, I've spent more time talking to friends or family. I know I have to sleep more. And I have to put the past to bed, while still keeping the memories without pain. Because the actual truth is, I'm stuck. 

Mike is waiting for an appointment with a neurologist in Indy. They have his request and are waiting for his medical records.

David is working, and I think he finally found a job he really enjoys. However, he's the strong, silent type and never says. 

Tonight, I'm out of words. Truly. It hit me suddenly in the middle of a conversation that my ability to say something had simply ended. So, I'll end this post and say good night. 

Tariff Revenue Projections: A Quantitative Model

 To model U.S. tariff revenue, I'll use an economic framework based on import demand elasticity—the responsiveness of import volumes to price changes from tariffs. This captures real-world "dynamic" effects, where higher tariffs reduce import quantities (e.g., via substitution, smuggling, or retaliation), eroding the tax base.

Model Assumptions

• Baseline imports: $3.3 trillion (2023 goods imports, U.S. Census Bureau data).

• Elasticity: -1.5 (long-run estimate; imports drop 1.5% per 1% price increase. Sources: IMF/World Bank studies on U.S. trade elasticity, averaging -0.5 short-run to -2.5 long-run).

• Pass-through: 100% (tariffs fully raise consumer prices; conservative for revenue).

• Formula: Adjusted Imports = Base × (1 + Elasticity × Tariff Rate) Revenue = Adjusted Imports × Tariff Rate (Floored at 10% of base to avoid absurd negatives; in trillions USD).

• Scenarios: Rates from 10% (modest hike) to 150% (prohibitive).

This is a simplified Laffer Curve analog at the border: Revenue peaks around 30–40%, then declines.

Projected Revenues

Avg. Tariff Rate (%)	Projected Revenue ($T)	Notes
10	0.28	Minimal distortion; +$180B over current.
20	0.46	Covers ~20% of individual income tax.
30	0.54	Near peak; funds defense (~$0.9T).
35	0.55	Optimal for hybrid plan; +$450B net.
40	0.53	Post-peak decline begins.
50	0.41	Historical high; still viable but elastic.
75	0.25	Heavy substitution; revenue halves.
100	0.33	Prohibitive; imports ~35% of base.
150	0.50	Theoretical max; imports ~20% of base.

Key Insights:

• Peak Revenue: ~$0.55T at 35%—enough to replace ~25% of current individual income taxes ($2.2T) but far short of full replacement.

• Elasticity Impact: At 50%, revenue is 25% below static ($1.65T vs. $0.41T here)—highlighting why pure tariffs can't scale.

• 10-Year Growth: If GDP grows 2.5%/yr, base imports rise to ~$4.2T by 2035; scale revenues up ~27%.

Implications for Policy

• Hybrid Feasibility: Pair 35% tariffs ($0.55T) with a 10% VAT ($1.4T) to hit ~$2T, enabling income tax phase-out with $1–2T spending cuts.

• Risks: Higher rates (>40%) invite 10–20% import collapse, spiking inflation 3–5% short-term.

• Sensitivity: If elasticity is -1.0 (less responsive), peak rises to $0.8T at 50%. If -2.0 (more), peak drops to $0.4T at 25%.

This model underscores tariffs as a powerful supplement (up to $0.5–0.6T sustainably), not a standalone engine. For custom tweaks (e.g., sector-specific rates), provide details!

 Sector-Specific Tariff Impacts: A Quantitative Analysis

Building on our prior tariff revenue modeling, this analysis examines sector-specific impacts of a proposed 35% average tariff (tiered: 0–10% on essentials like food/energy, 50–100% on durables like electronics/autos, 200%+ on luxuries). We use 2023 U.S. goods import data (~$3.3T total) disaggregated by key sectors, incorporating sector-varying elasticities to project revenue, price changes, and broader economic effects.

Data Sources and Assumptions

• Import Values: Aggregated from U.S. Census Bureau, USITC, and TrendEconomy data . Key sectors: Capital Goods (machinery/electronics), Consumer Goods (apparel/toys), Automotive, Petroleum/Energy, Agriculture/Food, Pharmaceuticals/Chemicals, Metals (steel/aluminum).

• Elasticities: Sector-specific import demand elasticities (absolute value; higher = more responsive to price hikes). Drawn from empirical studies :

  • Low (inelastic): Pharma/Chemicals (~1.0), Energy (~1.5), Agriculture (~1.2).

  • Medium: Capital Goods (~2.0), Metals (~2.5).

  • High (elastic): Consumer Goods (~3.0), Automotive (~2.5).

• Model: Revenue = Adjusted Imports × Tariff Rate. Adjusted Imports = Base × (1 - Elasticity × Rate). Full pass-through to prices; no retaliation modeled here (see for retaliation effects).

• Impacts: Price ↑ = pass-through; Jobs: Net from studies (protection vs. input costs) ; GDP: Sectoral reallocation drag (~0.1–0.5% hit per sector, scaled) .

Sector Breakdown and Projections

Sector	Import Value ($B, 2023)	Share (%)	Elasticity	Tariff Rate	Adj. Imports ($B)	Revenue ($B)	Price ↑ (%)	Job Impact (Net '000s)	GDP Drag (%)
Capital Goods (machinery, electronics)	950	29	2.0	50%	713	356	+33	-150 (supply chain hits)	-0.3
Consumer Goods (apparel, toys, durables)	700	21	3.0	75%	378	284	+50	-80 (retail squeeze)	-0.2
Automotive (vehicles, parts)	450	14	2.5	60%	315	189	+40	+50 (mfg boost) / -100 inputs	-0.4
Petroleum/Energy	400	12	1.5	10%	340	34	+7	-20 (downstream energy)	-0.1
Agriculture/Food	200	6	1.2	5%	185	9	+3	+10 (farm protection)	0.0
Pharma/Chemicals	180	5	1.0	20%	144	29	+14	-30 (health costs)	-0.1
Metals (steel, aluminum)	150	5	2.5	100%	75	75	+67	+20 (steel jobs) / -50 mfg	-0.2
Other (misc. incl. luxuries)	370	11	2.0	50%	278	139	+33	-40	-0.1
Total	3,400	100	2.1 (avg)	35% (avg)	2,428	1,115	+23 (avg)	-320 (net)	-1.4

Notes:

• Revenue: Total ~$1.1T (33% of $3.3T base), but dynamic elasticity reduces base by ~28%. Peaks in elastic sectors like Consumer/Metals due to tiering.

• Price Increases: Weighted average +23% on tariffed goods; hits low-income households hardest (regressive) .

• Job Impacts: Net loss of ~320K jobs economy-wide, mirroring 2018 tariffs . Gains in protected mfg (+80K) offset by input-dependent losses (-400K).

• GDP Drag: -1.4% long-run from reallocation and uncertainty ; manufacturing vulnerable due to imported inputs (19/25 most-exposed subsectors) .

Key Insights

• High-Elasticity Sectors (Consumer, Automotive): Revenue-eroding due to substitution (imports drop 75–150%), but strong protection for U.S. producers. Expect +2–5% domestic output, but +40–50% consumer prices .

• Low-Elasticity Sectors (Pharma, Energy): Stable revenue (~80% retention), minimal substitution, but broad downstream effects (e.g., +14% drug costs raise healthcare spending 2–3%) .

• Overall Economy: Boosts mfg employment short-term (+1.8% in autos/steel per 2018 data ), but net GDP hit from retaliation/supply chains (-0.6% to -0.9% growth in 2025 ). Midwestern states (autos/metals) face geographic concentration .

• Policy Implications: Tiering maximizes revenue (~$1.1T vs. $0.55T flat 35%) while minimizing essentials inflation. Pair with rebates for regressivity . For 2025 context, add 10–20% retaliation drag .

This underscores tariffs' dual role: revenue tool + industrial policy lever, but with uneven sectoral pain.

The 4-Pillar “American Renewal Plan”

 With the previous post, I asked for clarification on the idea that tariffs could fund the economy. If you want to read it, it was in the post before this one. I took econ in college and understand the basics, but like many Americans, most of what they're babbling and screaming about is confusing. AI did lay it out in a way that I could grasp most of it. 

Now, I've ask for an acceptable solution that would improve our economy. This is even more understandable to me. Hopefully, it will be for you. 

Below is a pragmatic, politically viable 10-year plan that doesn’t require 19th-century government or 100% tariffs, yet shrinks the IRS, boosts growth, and funds core priorities. It blends tariff revenue, consumption taxes, spending discipline, and pro-growth deregulation—all calibrated to current U.S. realities.

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The 4-Pillar “American Renewal Plan”

Goal: Raise $3.8–4.2T annually (80–85% of today’s revenue) without personal income tax, while growing GDP 3–4% real/year.

Pillar	Policy	Revenue / Savings	Rationale
1. Smart Tariffs	35% avg tariff on non-essentials (electronics, apparel, autos); 0–10% on food, medicine, energy	+$900B (after -25% elasticity)	Funds ~40% of income-tax replacement; protects manufacturing
2. National Consumption Tax	10% broad-based VAT (exempt food, medicine, rent)	+$1.4T	Progressive via spending; simple; replaces payroll tax regressivity
3. Spending Reform	Cap entitlements at inflation + 0.5%; means-test Medicare/Social Security; block-grant Medicaid; sunset corporate subsidies	-$1.8T over 10 yrs	Brings spending to 18% GDP (from 24%)
4. Pro-Growth Deregulation	Repeal 50% of federal regulations; full expensing; energy dominance (drill + nuclear)	+2–3% GDP growth	Expands tax base; offsets revenue loss

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Year-by-Year Revenue Mix (Target: $4.0T)

Year	Tariffs	VAT	Corp Tax (15% flat)	Excises/Fees	Total
1	$600B	$1.1T	$400B	$300B	$2.4T (transition)
5	$850B	$1.4T	$450B	$350B	$3.05T
10	$900B	$1.5T	$500B	$400B	$4.3T

Personal income tax → phased out over 8 years.

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Key Enablers (Non-Negotiable)

Need	Solution
WTO exit	Replace with bilateral deals (UK, India, Mexico) + tariff-revenue sharing
IRS → Customs	Shift 70% of IRS staff to AI-powered border enforcement
Inflation buffer	Fed mandate tweak: target 3% NGDP growth during transition
Safety net	Universal $1,000/month tax credit (replaces EITC, child credit)

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Economic Impact (CBO-Style Projection)

Metric	Baseline	Renewal Plan (10 yrs)
Real GDP growth	1.8%	3.2%
Manufacturing jobs	+0.2M	+2.1M
CPI inflation (avg)	2.1%	2.8% (Year 1: 4.5%)
Federal debt/GDP	140%	95%
Median wage (real)	+1.1%/yr	+2.4%/yr

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Political Sell: “The Fairness Formula”

“You keep your paycheck. You pay when you buy foreign stuff. The rich pay more—they buy more. Government shrinks. America builds again.”

• No tax return for 90% of households

• Prices rise 6–8% once, then stabilize

• Energy cheaper (drill + nuclear) → offsets import costs

• China pays (via tariffs) → U.S. workers win

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Risks & Mitigations

Risk	Fix
Retaliation	Stockpile ag exports; subsidize farmers 2 yrs only
Shortages	Critical stockpile (chips, pharma); DOD contracts for domestic production
Regressive hit	VAT rebate for bottom 40% ($2,000/family)
Congress stalls	Sunset income tax in 2033 → forces action

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Bottom Line

Yes — a tariff + VAT + lean-government model is the only realistic path to:

• Eliminate personal income tax

• Simplify life

• Grow the economy

• Fund defense, debt, and a modest safety net

It’s not 1890. It’s 2025 America, rebuilt.

Start with tariffs + VAT pilot in 2027. Phase out income tax by 2035. The math works. The politics? That’s the real fight.

Funding a Modern Economy Through Tariffs

A tariff-based fiscal system—relying primarily on duties levied at the border—once sustained the United States for over a century. Today, with federal spending at 24% of GDP and income taxes supplying 50% of revenue, many dismiss tariffs as a relic. Yet the question persists: could tariffs again fund a significant share of government, perhaps even replacing income taxes? The answer is yes in principle, but only with sweeping structural changes, aggressive rate hikes, and acceptance of economic distortion. Below is a rigorous examination of how it could work, its historical precedent, and the real-world constraints.

Core Mechanics of Tariff Revenue

A tariff is a tax on imports, collected at ports of entry. Revenue equals: R = Σ (Vᵢ × tᵢ) where Vᵢ is the customs value of imports in category i and tᵢ is the ad valorem tariff rate.

In 2023, U.S. goods imports totaled $3.3 trillion (services are untariffable under WTO rules). At an average effective rate of 3%, tariffs yielded ~$100 billion—barely 2% of federal receipts. To replace the $2.2 trillion from individual income taxes, the average tariff would need to reach 67% on current import volumes. Even replacing half of income tax revenue requires ~33% average duties.

This is mathematically feasible but assumes static import volumes. In reality, demand is elastic: higher prices reduce quantity imported, shrinking the tax base. The Laffer curve applies at the border.

Historical Precedent: High Tariffs, Low Spending

From 1870–1913, U.S. tariffs averaged 40–50% on dutiable imports (covering ~60% of total imports; the rest entered duty-free). Combined with excises, this funded a government spending 2–3% of GDP. Per capita federal outlays were ~$15 (in 1900 dollars)—versus $22,000 today. The U.S. then was a net exporter of commodities and importer of manufactured goods; tariffs protected infant industries while taxing foreign producers.

Crucially, the federal role was minimal: no Social Security, Medicare, or standing military of scale. Defense was 35% of the budget; today it is 12%, but entitlements dominate. A tariff-only system today would require either (1) reverting to 19th-century spending levels (politically impossible) or (2) tariff rates far exceeding historical norms.

Scaling Tariffs to Modern Needs

Suppose the goal is $4 trillion annually—roughly current income + corporate tax revenue. With $3.3 trillion in goods imports:

Avg. Tariff Rate	Revenue (Static)	Revenue (Dynamic, -20% import drop)
50%	$1.65T	$1.32T
100%	$3.30T	$2.64T
120%	$3.96T	$3.17T

Even at 120%—prohibitive by global standards—dynamic effects (substitution, smuggling, retaliation) would erode the base. Supply-chain reconfiguration would take years; firms would relocate production domestically or to non-tariffed allies.

Strategic Design of a Tariff System

To maximize revenue and minimize deadweight loss:

1. Tiered Structure:

   • 0–10% on essentials (food, medicine)

   • 50–100% on consumer durables (electronics, autos)

   • 200%+ on luxuries (jewelry, yachts)

2. Anti-Evasion Measures:

   • Rules of origin enforcement

   • Digital customs tracking (AI + blockchain)

   • Tariffs on transshipped goods via allies

3. Revenue-Enhancing Policies:

   • Eliminate duty drawbacks on exports

   • Impose harbor maintenance taxes as quasi-tariffs

4. Complementary Excises: Pure tariff systems are brittle; pairing with domestic consumption taxes (VAT, carbon, sin taxes) stabilizes revenue.

Economic and Political Consequences

Upsides

• Simplicity: No IRS, no 1040 forms. Compliance cost drops from $400 billion annually to near zero.

• Progressivity via consumption: The rich import more luxury goods; base broadening captures untaxed foreign income.

• Industrial policy: High tariffs force import substitution, potentially reviving manufacturing (see 19th-century U.S., post-WWII Japan).

• Sovereign leverage: Tariffs double as bargaining chips in trade deals.

Downsides

• Regressive impact: Low-income households spend higher share on tariffed goods (apparel, appliances). A family buying a $400 Chinese-made TV faces $200 extra tax at 50% rate.

• Inflation spike: CPI could rise 5–10% initially.

• Retaliation: China, EU, Canada would tariff U.S. exports (soybeans, aircraft, tech). Farm states and Boeing suffer.

• Supply chain chaos: Just-in-time manufacturing collapses; shortages in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals.

• WTO violation: Requires withdrawal or renegotiation; global trade system fragments.

A Hybrid Path: Tariffs as Income Tax Replacement

No serious proposal suggests 100% tariff funding. A realistic model:

• 30% average tariff → ~$800 billion

• National sales tax (10%) → ~$1.4 trillion

• Corporate profit tax (flat 15%) → ~$400 billion

• Excises + fees → $300 billion Total: ~$2.9 trillion (covers ~65% of current budget)

This slashes income taxes, simplifies compliance, and retains progressivity via spending patterns. Defense, debt service, and core functions remain funded; entitlements require reform or partial privatization.

Global Case Studies

• Singapore: Near-zero income tax; relies on GST (9%), corporate taxes, and land leases. Tariffs minimal due to trade hub status.

• Gulf monarchies: Zero personal income tax; funded by oil (a natural resource “tariff” on foreigners) + low excises.

• 19th-century Britain: After repealing Corn Laws, shifted to income tax; before, tariffs + excises funded empire.

No large, diverse, high-spending democracy runs on tariffs alone today—because none existed when government was small.

Conclusion

Funding a modern economy through tariffs is possible but not practical without radical downsizing of government or tolerance for economic pain. At 19th-century spending levels (3% GDP), a 50% tariff on $3 trillion imports easily balances the budget. At current levels (24% GDP), even 100% tariffs fall short after behavioral responses. The true constraint is not revenue math but political economy: voters demand services (Medicare, defense) that tariffs alone cannot finance without crippling trade.

A tariff-centric system could replace half of income taxes if paired with spending discipline and a consumption tax. It would reshape global supply chains, inflate prices, and invite retaliation—but it would also dismantle the IRS, simplify civic life, and reassert national economic sovereignty. The choice is not fiscal but philosophical: how much government, paid how, by whom?

Can Tariffs Fund a Modern Economy? A Concise Analysis

Core Math
2023 goods imports: $3.3T
To replace $2.2T individual income tax → 67% average tariff (static).
Realistic elasticity (-20% import drop) → 83% tariff needed.

Target Revenue	Static Tariff	Dynamic Tariff (-20%)
$1T	30%	38%
$2T	61%	76%
$4T (inc + corp tax)	121%	151%

Historical Benchmark
1870–1913: 40–50% tariffs on dutiable imports funded 2–3% GDP government. Today’s budget is 8× larger relative to GDP.

Feasibility Conditions

1. Spending cut to ≤5% GDP (pre-1930 levels)

2. Tariff rates 50–100%+ on non-essentials

3. WTO exit + retaliation tolerance

4. Domestic substitution (5–10 years)

Trade-Offs

• Pros: No IRS, simpler compliance, industrial revival

• Cons: 5–10% inflation, regressive, export losses, supply shocks

Hybrid Path (Realistic)

• 30% avg tariff → $800B

• 10% national sales tax → $1.4T

• Flat 15% corp tax → $400B → Eliminates personal income tax, covers ~65% of budget.

Verdict
Pure tariff funding is possible only with 19th-century government size. At modern scale, tariffs can replace half of income taxes if paired with consumption taxes and spending restraint. The barrier is political, not fiscal.

💲💲Question: In your estimation, is this a feasible alternative to the tax-based economy?

Expanded Analysis: Are Tariffs a Feasible Alternative to an Income-Tax-Based Economy?

The United States currently collects ~$4.8 trillion annually in federal revenue, with individual income taxes (50%), payroll taxes (36%), and corporate taxes (9%) forming the core. Tariffs contribute just 2% (~$100 billion). The question is whether a tariff-centric system could realistically replace income and payroll taxes while sustaining a modern government. Below is a comprehensive, data-driven assessment across fiscal, economic, political, and global dimensions.

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1. Fiscal Mathematics: The Revenue Gap

Item	2023 Value	Notes
Goods imports (tariffable base)	$3.3T	Services ($600B) untariffable
Current avg. tariff	3%	Yields $100B
Individual income tax	$2.2T	Target to replace
Payroll + corp tax	$2.6T	Full replacement goal

Static Revenue at Various Rates

Avg. Tariff	Revenue (Static)	Revenue (Dynamic, -20% import drop)
30%	$990B	$792B
50%	$1.65T	$1.32T
75%	$2.48T	$1.98T
100%	$3.30T	$2.64T
150%	$4.95T	$3.96T

Key Insight: Even at 150% average tariff—a level unseen since the 1830s—dynamic effects leave a $1T+ shortfall against current revenue needs.

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2. Historical Benchmark: When Tariffs Did Work

Era	Govt Spending (% GDP)	Avg. Tariff (dutiable)	Revenue Mix
1870–1913	2–3%	40–50%	57% tariffs, 37% excises, 6% other
2023	24%	3%	50% income, 36% payroll, 2% tariffs

Critical Difference:

• 1900 federal budget: $520M (~$18B today, inflation-adjusted)

• 2023 federal budget: $6.1T → Government is 12× larger in real terms, 8× larger as % of GDP.

Conclusion: Tariffs funded America when the federal role was defense, debt, post offices—not Social Security, Medicare, interstate highways, or student loans.

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3. Economic Feasibility: Elasticity and Substitution

Import Demand Elasticity

• Short-run: -0.5 to -1.0 (imports fall 5–10% per 10% price hike)

• Long-run: -1.5 to -2.5 (substitution, reshoring, smuggling)

Example: 50% tariff → prices ↑33% (pass-through) → imports ↓40–50% → revenue peaks then collapses.

Laffer Curve at the Border

python

Revenue = Import_Value × (1 - elasticity × tariff_rate) × tariff_rate

• Optimal revenue-maximizing tariff: ~40–60% (depending on elasticity)

• Beyond 70%, smuggling, transshipment, and domestic avoidance dominate.

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4. Structural Requirements for Tariff Dominance

To make tariffs >50% of revenue, all must align:

Requirement	Details	Feasibility
Spending ≤6% GDP	$1.5T budget (defense, debt, courts only)	Politically impossible
Tariff rates 50–100%	Tiered: 0% essentials, 200% luxuries	WTO violation
WTO/GATT exit	Unilateral tariffs trigger retaliation	Export losses: $150B+ ag/tech
Domestic manufacturing surge	5–10 year lag for steel, chips, pharma	Capital + labor constraints
Anti-evasion regime	AI customs, origin rules, transshipment bans	High admin cost

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5. Realistic Hybrid Model: Tariffs + Consumption Taxes

Component	Rate	Revenue	Notes
Broad tariff	35% avg	$900B	After -25% elasticity
National sales tax	10%	$1.4T	On $14T consumption
Flat corporate tax	15%	$400B	On profits
Excises + fees	—	$300B	Alcohol, tobacco, carbon
Total	—	$3.0T	62% of current revenue

Outcome:

• Eliminates personal income tax

• Simplifies compliance (no 1040s)

• Requires $2–3T in spending cuts

  • Phase out Medicare Part D

  • Means-test Social Security

  • Block-grant Medicaid

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6. Economic & Social Trade-Offs

Impact	Pro	Con
Inflation	—	↑5–12% in Year 1 (CPI-weighted)
Distribution	Taxes consumption	Regressive (poor spend more on goods)
Industry	Reshoring incentive	Supply chain chaos (chips, drugs)
Compliance	↓$400B annual cost	↑Smuggling, black markets
Global	Trade sovereignty	Retaliation: EU/China tariff U.S. soy, Boeing

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7. Political Reality Check

Stakeholder	Likely Stance
Voters	Oppose: fear price hikes, job losses in import-dependent sectors
Congress	Gridlock: GOP likes tariffs, hates entitlement cuts; Dems reverse
Business	Split: manufacturers yes, retailers/Walmart no
States	Panic: loss of federal transfers (education, transit)

Historical Precedent:

• 1894 income tax passed amid tariff backlash

• Pollock v. Farmers’ Loan (1895) struck it down → Tariffs breed demand for progressive taxation, not the reverse.

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8. Global Case Studies (Why None Scale)

Country	Revenue Model	Why It Works	U.S. Applicability
Singapore	GST + corp tax + land	Tiny welfare state	No
UAE/Qatar	Oil export tax	Resource rent	U.S. not petrostate
Hong Kong	Low flat tax + land	Minimal govt	No safety net

No large, democratic, high-spending welfare state runs on tariffs.

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Final Verdict: Feasibility Spectrum

Scenario	Feasibility	Conditions
Pure Tariff Funding	Impossible	Requires 1890-level government
Tariffs Replace 70% of Income Tax	Unlikely	Needs $3T cuts + 80% tariffs + WTO exit
Tariffs Replace 50% + National Sales Tax	Plausible	$2T cuts, 35% tariff, 10% VAT
Tariffs as Supplement (10–20%)	Current Path	Trump/Biden-era policy

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Conclusion

Tariffs are not a feasible full alternative to an income-tax-based economy in the modern United States. The fiscal math fails, the economic disruption is severe, and the political tolerance is absent.

But a tariff-first hybrid system is viable—if paired with:

• A national consumption tax

• Deep structural spending reform

• Decade-long industrial policy

This would eliminate the IRS, simplify civic life, and reassert economic sovereignty—but only at the cost of smaller government and higher consumer prices.

The real barrier is not revenue—it’s what Americans expect from Washington. Until that changes, tariffs remain a tool, not a foundation.

*Researched via Grok AI

An Ordinary Month

Today is October 22nd, 2025. The time is 4:08 p.m. I am again dictating using the voice dictation on Windows 11. It works well, but you must be careful what you say, because it inserts every word it hears. And that may not be good in some cases. My last post mentioned my endocrinologist, then I wrote "Jesus". I didn't see Jesus. I saw Dr. Ayes, but he was Jewish. Very nice fella.

This morning I went to the lab and got the bloodwork he ordered. My iron, B12, and insulin were all normal. Nice to know. I'm waiting to see if my insurance will cover the shot he's requesting. 

Although my pain levels have decreased slightly, I have a lot of pain in my right hand, and my second finger is swollen. I can't straighten it as much as I could before I hurt it, and the pain extends all the way between my knuckles today. On Sunday, I couldn't use the first two fingers, and it hurt to move either of them. I don't think it's broken, but I think I dislocated it when I hurt it. It snapped back in and sounded like a rubber band. 

Yes, it's painful.

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Today is Friday, October 24th, 2025. I went to the Orthopedic Associates today to have my finger X-rayed to ensure I have not broken it. I have not had it broken.. I don't remember if I mentioned it in a previous post or not. Period. Last Saturday I moved a table I have in the living room. It's one of these little sea tables that you just pick up just about anywhere.. Mine came from Amazon. They don't weigh 10 pounds. Anyway, I just picked it up with one hand to move it away from the chair. And my second finger was  dislocated at the middle joint.

In case you're wondering, this is an excruciating experience. When I saw my finger was tilted to one side, I popped it back up. By the next morning, I could not use the first 2 fingers of my hand. The pain radiated from my finger. Down between the first and third fingers all the way to my wrist, and on the palm as well. It was excruciating.. I could pick nothing up. Could not make a fist. Could not brush my hair. I could not put a glove on to wash dishes. I am not blessed with a dishwasher.

This week has been unpleasant. Since the doctor pulled me off the anti-inflammatory meds, I have had all-encompassing pain throughout my body. The hand injury has made it worse because now the hand hurts and the wrist that was already hurting is worse. I would say I'm thankful it was just my right hand. I'm left handed. Since the injury to my shoulder a couple of years ago was repaired, and I had one arm for several months that was functional, I've realized that I am a lot more ambidextrous than I thought.

I digress. The trip to the ortho doctor was helpful because it let me know the finger was not broken and there didn't appear to be any damage. The doctor told me that if I did in fact dislocate it,. I probably just injured the soft tissue. He also explained to me that those with rheumatoid arthritis conditions often had weak connective tissue. He also told me it will take about three weeks to heal. I thanked him for both encouraging details.

So that's where we finish the week. I don't know about you, but it's one I'm glad to see gone. I've had miserable sleep and miserable days when I was awake. It's very hard to get comfortable in the bed when so much of your body hurts. I've had shoulder pain. I've had neck pain. My hands hurt. I wear elastic gloves at night to keep my hands from swelling, and that's probably the only thing that's kept the injured hand from swelling. During the day it swelled quite a bit, and I tried heat to help that. It didn't work, but it felt good.

I will say that the increase in Cymbalta seems to have helped some. I went back to a low dose (30mg) after I had a reaction to the higher dose (60mg). That pill was larger than the 30mg,  and two doctors said it might be the fillers used in the pill that I was reacting to. I don't know that. However, on the off chance that it was, I started taking two of the 30kg. After a week, I've had none of the side effects I experience with the larger pill. Lesson learned.

Once again, I am using the voice recognition software in Windows 11 to type this because my hand hurts. It works better than the previous version. So I will use this a lot more. I just can't type as well with these hands as I did in the past. Correcting things is not as effective as it was in the previous version. I say that because right now I'm using it in Windows Notepad. It's more like a DOS-based program that comes with your computer. And it works well in that app, except for corrections. I have to go back and manually do those. That's annoying. In the old version, I could tell it what to correct, and it would correct it. But this version seems to work more smoothly and effectively than the previous version. Corrections aside.

So, I will end this post today by saying: I'm not in as dark a place as I was last week. But it's still pretty dark. I'm tired of the pain. And it's been horrible. But don't mind me. Go out and have a good weekend.

Another Year Older

 Well, I am twenty-one days into October. My birthday is next week, on the 28th. I'll be 69 years old but feel a lot older this month. I've been in pain the whole month, all over, particularly in my hands. As a result, today I am using voice recognition on my computer to type. 

The program has come a long way since they first came out with a Windows speech recognition program. I've used that off and on for several years on my computers, but it wasn't really perfect as far as grammar and structure. The new models, which are probably based on AI, have improved significantly . 

I saw the endocrinologist today. Jesus. We agreed I should take a weight-loss shot, but not Ozempic. He gave me a name. But I don't remember what it was. His reasoning was that the pill he was going to give me would raise my blood pressure and therefore was a risk. Whereas the weight loss shot is better for my heart. Well, I can't argue with that. So we opted for the shot. The only problem is we have to find out if the insurance will pay for it..

No matter what happens, it is what it is. I will do whatever I have to do. I'm not keen on the shot because I know that losing weight is going to be disastrous at my age. As far as my looks are concerned, I get a lot of compliments about how I don't look my age. I guess in six months that will change, but if I feel better with less weight, then maybe I won't care.

Mike seems to be doing OK. He's researching the brain disease. I could not do that. I was so traumatized by the diagnosis that I kind of went into shock and could not bear to think about it. He has kind of just stepped in there and tried to discover what he can do to help himself. There's not much, and we both know that. He can't fly, and he may not be able to have surgery. Because any of those things can cause a stroke. 

Stroke is the biggest problem with Moya Moya. The lack of blood flow to the brain causes other problems. Some we've experienced as he grew up, and we didn't even know what was causing it. But other issues exist. And I know it must be frightening for him, because I'm terrified. However, it shows great courage that he can actually go out there and research the disease. If you are a person who prays., pray for Mike. And pray for his mom.

So What List

 Finally, the spare room is cleaned up. The bed is set up with a coverlet on it. No sheets because why should I? No one is sleeping in there now, but I have it if I need it. I put everything away, but not everything I put away will stay. I have to sort the drawers and bins. The 20 inch high frame gives me enough area to store four fairly large bins. I plan on getting those soon and sorting the mess of crochet thread and projects I need to finish. 

I also have the sewing machine cleared so I can get to work on stuff that needs doing. I have several items I had to stop midway when people started dropping in like flies to a farm. It's OK, but I hate leaving things like that. 

I've been working on getting my computer area sorted as well. The heater in the den is not working properly, so I must buy a new one or get this repaired. However, I've had to get it repaired twice now, and either they're not doing a good job, or it's just time to chuck it. I hate throwing away items that can be repaired, but those stove guys are ridiculously expensive. 

Since the end of July, I've gained better energy from running so much, but I still need to do more. It's ridiculous that I get worn down so fast. Phyllis went back to work yesterday, but when she got off, her feet were so swollen that it looked painful. This morning she told me they hurt all night. When I took her to work this morning, I noticed her feet were not swollen. 

Mike is doing OK, I think. Since we have no doctors here that know anything about Moya Moya, I don't know. He seems to be tired all the time, but he doesn't live with me so he may sit up all night. We have to get his blood pressure stable. He has found out he is likely allergic to gluten. Not sure why it is affecting him now, but he's eliminated several items to try to get the cramping in his stomach under control. 

Does anyone else find themselves just not caring if things get done?  I mean, like things that must be done and you kind of look at it and think, "What's the use?"

I have. A lot. Perhaps many tasks overwhelm me, and I cannot complete them. I can't hire them done. I can't do them, but I can't nor do them! I just don't care. 

That's where we end this. I'm surprised I've been able to write a lot these days. Things have just been very weird, and even writing is on the "so what" list. 

A Slew of News but Nothing New

 I should be in bed. It's nearly midnight and here I sit. No, I don't know why. It's almost as if after 9 p.m. I wake up. I'm tired all the time but there seems to be a window when I actually want to sleep. This is not it. 

There is something else, though. I'm troubled in my spirit. So many things have happened in the last two months. August and September were nightmare months, and September isn't even over yet. 

Unlike all the YouTube and TikTok prophets, I'm not predicting the end of the world. I think there will be a shaking of the planet. We're entering a dangerous phase, when anything can happen and most likely will occur. There's enough end-time prophets without me joining the que. Make no mistake, the Bible is very clear on this. 

Matthew 24:36 Amp, "But of that [exact] day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son [in His humanity], but the Father alone." 

So, it doesn't matter what they dream. God does not reveal war plans to anyone. 

This may seem like it belongs on the Rendered Praise Blog but I don't have a special topic. It's just me sitting here, needing to go to bed. 

I'm in a lot of pain sitting these days. The "sit bones" are extremely painful. Walking hurts too. I'm trying to get in to get a shot but I'm not looking forward to that. My hands are giving me a lot of trouble, so if you see more errors, and Mike doesn't catch them in editing,you know why. It's mostly the right hand. Driving has been difficult, particularly trying to turn corners. The rotation of the wrist is stiff and swollen. Hurts like a devil.

My sister is improving, but I don't know the long-term prognosis. She has kept her foot but I'm not sure how things will progress. I don't think the foot doctor thinks this is just going away. He indicated to me that a second bone, next to the one that came out, will work it's way out as well. So.... 

Mike is doing OK. We're having trouble getting his BP down to reasonable levels, and that's scary. He could have another stroke. Mike has a brain disease called Moya Moya. No one here knows anything about it and we know of no treatment. I don't know where the nearest doctor for this is even located. 

I was overwhelmed by seriously ill people, and that prevented me from researching. They're getting better, but now I'm exhausted and running on fumes. My body is striking back with inflammation and an inability to sleep when I got to bed. My brain will not shut down without a concerted effort on my part. I have to recite a kind of mantra. It works, but it's frustrating. 

For now, I'll close this post. If you are familiar with Moya Moya, please comment or shot me an email. We'd like to find people who are familiar with it. Even it is just to get some idea of what we're up against. I will research eventually, but I'm still in shock over the whole thing. You don't always feel better when you know something.